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Anti-independence Ciudadanos are expected to get 34-37 seats in the Catalan parliament that has 135 seats. The pro-independence left-leaning ERC is on course to come second with 34-36. Next in line are pro-independence Junts per Catalunya with 28-29. Then come the pro-Spain socialists with 18-20.

Update: the official results are in. Ciudadanos comes first with over 25% of the vote and 36 seats. However, the three independence parties, JxC, ERC, and CUP command 70 seats, more than 68 needed for an absolute majority. However, there are disagreements within every block. Cobbling a coalition will take time.

EUR/USD is steady around 1.1854.

While the first party is anti-independence, the pro-independence parties, ERC, JxC, and CUP could reach a majority of 68 seats. Things are still very close.

These are not exit polls but a wide poll of around 3000 people held today at 18:00 local time, two hours before polls closed, by one of Catalonia’s leading newspapers, La Vanguardia.

Here are two polls from today that show a very close struggle between the pro-independence parties in light orange, black and yellow, and the unionist parties in dark orange, red, and blue. The party in the middle, in purple, is Catalnunya  en Comu. The party is backed by Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau and they support a binding referendum but reject both a unilateral declaration of independence and also the suspension of the autonomy. The polarization did not help them.

Opinion polls showed a very close battle between pro-independence parties and pro-Spain, unionist parties. Turnout has been very high, with around 68% at 18:00 compared with 63% in 2015.

The northeastern region has been in the headlines during the month of October. The government led by President Carles Puigdemont held an unconstitutional referendum which was crushed with violence by paramilitary Spanish forces.

Despite lots of sympathies, the Catalan government did not have a clear path and made a messed up declaration of independence and the autonomy was suspended by the Spanish government that called these elections.

The turmoil in Catalonia weighed on the local economy and also hit Spanish stocks  during the worst days of the crisis in early October. They have recovered since  then. The euro had suffered minor drops during the crisis, but mostly ignored it.


more coming