Analysts at Nomura suggest that China is unlikely to experience substantial capital outflows for few reasons.
Key Quotes
“1) corporates are better hedged, with outstanding long USD/CNY FX forward positions rising to USD106.9bn in September 2018 from only USD47.4bn in July 2015; 2) domestic investors have grown increasingly accustomed to greater FX volatility since the RMB devaluation and FX reform of August 2015 and; 3) local authorities have clamped down on numerous outflow channels, which should help limit any capital flight.”
“Overall, our view that USD/CNY will break 7.0 before year-end is intact. Indeed, there are risks that this could occur realtively soon. Importantly, we believe that, even if there is a break, this would trigger a recurrence of the 2015/16 period of capital outflows, while authorities should be able to easily manage the FX market on a break.”
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