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According to the latest Reuters poll of 39 economists, China’s exports growth is expected to have eased only slightly last month, possibly further boosting a trade surplus, as the impact of the first round of the US tariff is expected to have a very limited impact on China’s exports to the US.

Key Findings:

“The poll forecasted Chinese exports growth of 10 percent year-on-year in June, cooling slightly from a 12.6 percent rise in May.

Imports growth was also expected to remain solid at 20.8 percent last month, the third straight month of 20-plus percent growth, albeit slowing again from the 26 percent surge in May.              

The poll showed China’s overall trade surplus likely widened to $27.61 billion in June from $24.92 billion in May. There was no separate forecast on China’s trade surplus with the United States which has continued to grow even as its total surplus has narrowed over the last two years.

China ran a $375 billion goods trade surplus with the United States in 2017.”              

The China Customs will report the June trade balance report this Friday around 0300 GMT.