Citibank: UK Parliament is likely to take negotiations further to the brink

Analysts from Citibank see no reason to revise the potential no-deal Brexit damage to the UK economy as the UK parliament is scheduled to hold further Brexit debate on Valentine’s day.

• “On  Valentine’s Day, the UK Parliament is expected to get its next chance to express views on Brexit. A different withdrawal treaty will not be on  the table, so the question will be whether to: (1) take the negotiations  further to the brink,(2) stop or reset the clock  (no Brexit at least  for now, through Article 50 extension or  revocation) or (3) abort  attempts to secure a deal and prepare for a no-deal.”
• “If the vote is not delayed, our base case is that we will see a re-run of 29 Jan scenario: Parliament would take negotiations further to the brink. But, new amendments to take the process out of government’s hands, like last week’s Cooper amendment which failed by 17 votes.”
• “Businesses would face significant disruption in goods trade as processes and infrastructure may not be in place, and officials lacking in numbers and training. Contract continuity will probably not be legislated everywhere, licensing and certificates may be unavailable at short notice and personal data transfer and storage restrictions may apply. Business themselves may find gaps in their preparations. Expatriates would face major uncertainty about their status and rights.”
• “We see no reason to revise down the economic damage we would expect if the UK leaves without any follow-on agreement next month.”