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Commodity markets are set for a positive year, benefitting from an improving economic backdrop. Strategists at ANZ Bank expect the recovery from the COVID-19-related closures to continue, accelerated by a widely available vaccine. 

Key quotes

“The commodity market is set for a positive year amid an improving economic backdrop. The recovery from the pandemic will accelerate once a vaccine is widely available, further supported by ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus from governments around the world. A strong global growth pulse will likely see the US dollar weaken, which is normally a prerequisite for a rally in commodity markets.” 

“We see rapidly evolving technology and the developments in the new energy sector having big impacts on commodity markets. Compared to the oversupplied energy sector, metals are well placed to benefit from these dynamics.” 

“The downside risks should not to be dismissed. The strong rally in 2020 combined with extreme positioning by investors raises the risk that the improvement in the growth outlook may already have been priced in.”

“Many temporary supply side issues, which have contributed to tightening markets, may ease as restrictions on activities are eased.” 

“Rising geopolitical tensions remain a risk. How the incoming US administration tackles issues such as the Iran nuclear deal, Venezuela’s governance and the trade dispute with China will set the framework under which commodity markets must operate.”