Housing data in the US continues to shine, with Pending Home Sales showing strength and surprising. But the markets have their heads in the next two days: G20 Summit and NFP. Tension is high…
Pending Home Sales have been very positive: A rise of 2.1%, compared to early expectations of 0.2%. Comparing to last month, it looks like the tables have turned: last month, Pending Home Sales fell by 7.7%!
This figure adds to various housing figures that have been published in the last few weeks: all were surprising to the upside. It began with Building Permits and Housing Starts, continued with New Homes Sales and Existing Home Sales, and today’s figure already makes it a trend.
American Housing is above the bottom. I don’t know if it’s renewed optimism, the stimulus plans, or that housing was at rock bottom, and just couldn’t go lower.
But the greenback hasn’t gained since the recent release: the majors haven’t made any moves. EUR/USD trades at 1.3253, GBP/USD at 1.4358, USD/JPY at 98.95 and USD/CHF 1.1410 at the moment of writing.
Also the positive ISM Manufacturing PMI didn’t move the markets. IT recorded a surprise at 36.3, more than 35.8 that was expected, and more than last month’s 35.8.
The negative figure was the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change or ADP Non-Farm Payrolls. It plunged by 742K of jobs, much worse than -660K that was expected. Though considered a warm up figure for the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, this figure’s correlation with NFP is far from perfect, to say the least…
It seems as if the markets are tensed towards the G20 summit tomorrow. Different news regarding the summit have been published in recent days. The general notion is that the leaders will fail to take action, and settle for a joint statement of concern. But nothing has been finalized, so anything can happen.
And on Friday, well the regular circus of Non-Farm Payrolls will dominate.
So today, the market is waiting…