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The spread of the COVID-19 virus and the forceful restrictions being put in place together with elevated financial stress led to a recession, in the opinion of analysts at Danske Bank. 

Key quotes

“We expect the global economy to fall into a recession in Q1 and Q2 and probably the early part of Q3 too followed by a recovery over H2.” 

“The sizeable economic slowdown will lead to a higher unemployment rate in western economies but the rise should be cushioned by government labour support schemes in Europe and the US.”

“There are rays of light in China (and to some extent South Korea) where the virus has been got under control and production has returned to normal in many places, benefiting the global value chains.”

 

Expert score

5

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