Coronavirus: The probability of disappearance of COVID-19 is not 100% – Natixis

The economic forecasts made today assume that Europe and the United States will be rid of COVID-19 from the third quarter of 2021, mainly thanks to vaccination. As a result, growth is expected to accelerate very sharply from the second half of 2021. However, economists at Natixis are not certain that the health situation and therefore the economic situation will fully return to normal from the summer of 2021.  

Key quotes

“There are several risks, perhaps we will not be rid of COVID-19 from the third quarter of 2021. The entire population of the US and Europe will not be vaccinated; therefore, local cases of covid may reappear that will have to be controlled (local lockdowns, etc.). New variants may appear, which develop when the initial versions of the virus (COVID-2020, British variant) have been controlled, and on which vaccines are less effective.”

“The central scenario for forecasts is that the US and Europe will be rid of COVID-19 from the third quarter of 2021, and therefore that economic growth will become very strong again from that time. But we believe it is prudent to keep in mind the possibility of an alternative scenario where covid does not completely disappear (due to a vaccination rate of less than 100%, new variants) and where constraints that slow the economy (services) persist.”  

“We believe that the majority of doctors do not believe COVID-19 will be eradicated.”