Crude Oil: The Rally Is Corrective


On crude oil we are observing a corrective rally, which means that larger downtrend, started back in March 2012 remains in play. The price structure is showing a three wave movement from the low of 77 with a running triangle in wave B.

Keep in mind that breakouts of a triangles are terminal. So, if we are correct, then current strength is wave C is a final leg of a recovery, that already reached first resistance around 94.40. We may see even extensions to 96 or even 99 based on Fibonacci projections, which however may not get hit if market reverses lower in impulsive fashion.

Crude Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis August 2012

Crude Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Click image to enlarge

Guest post by Gregor Horvat

So. all the focus should now be on any larger decline. Because if this fall will unfold in five waves, let’s say back below $90.50 per barrel, then we will call and confirm a tradeable top of a C wave and will focus on larger downtrend continuation. Remember, let the price confirm your wave count!

Also keep in mind that fall on Crude Oil and other risky assets will be bearish for EUR and more importantly bullish for USD.

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About Author

Grega Horvat Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of Ew-Forecast, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and His feature articles have been published on,, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory,,, etc. He recently won the award on for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At Ew-forecast he helps clients and educates them about the Elliott wave principle and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty, however, is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators. EW-Forecast To be involved in the market effectively, you need the right guidance and resources, and our team can help you to achieve that. Our team is providing advanced informations about Elliott Wave theory in real time. The Elliott Wave Principle gives you a method for identifying the behavior of the markets and at what points the market is most likely to turn. We help new traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our views as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power!