Top officials receive economic data before everybody else does. That’s no secret. And when it’s good news, they cannot always keep it secret.
This happened in the US as recently as just before the last Non-Farm Payrolls report, as both FOMC member James Bullard and US President Barack Obama gave us strong hints about the unemployment rate. And indeed, the actual NFP was great and so were revisions. Is it happening now with the GDP report, from the mouth of US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew?
Lew spoke in Johannesburg, South Africa and said that “US economic indicators are very positive” and “on trend and not in danger of reversal in the near term”. These are very bullish comments coming out from the administration’s top economic official, just before the first release of GDP for Q3.
Market expectations stand on an annual growth rate of 3.1% in Q3, but recent data such as durable goods orders, may have lowered the real expectations. “Whisper” numbers may be lower.
Can we expect a strong read now?
And another important question for the nearer future: will the Fed also be moved by this figure? If Lew sees a good number, so does Yellen and so do her colleagues.
Could news of a strong GDP number impact the Fed decision? We’ll know that soon enough.
Further reading:
Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs