DJIA retains a bullish stance but ends modestly lower on geo-political headlines and a dark cloud over Washington
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DJIA retains a bullish stance but ends modestly lower on geo-political headlines and a dark cloud over Washington

  • DJIA fell 72 points, or 0.3%, to 25,985.
  • S&P 500 SPX, lost just 1 point to 2,792.
  • Nasdaq Composite Index actually edged up 5 points to 7,554.  

Despite the geopolitical risks, 1) with Pakistan reporting its air force shot down two of the Indian fighter jets over the disputed border region of Kashmir – (a significant escalation of the crisis between the two nuclear-armed powers), and 2) associated with Cohen’s testimony today, leaving Trump in the firing line, along with the mixed messages from Trump’s top trade negotiator Lighthizer’s testimony which has confirmed the market’s concerns of a high bar for a trade agreement between China and the US due to requirements for “significant structural changes” to China’s economic model, Wall Street managed to hold into positive territory on the charts, albeit modestly down on the S&P and DJIA on the session.  

As for US data, analysts at Westpac wrapped  up the outcomes into the following  summary:

  • US pending home sales posted an encouraging 4.6% lift in January, a sharp fall in mortgage rates late last year arguably helping end a streak of six consecutive monthly declines in home sales. Sales rose across all key regions.  

  • The December advance goods trade deficit blew out to a record $79.5bn as imports rose 2.4% and exports slipped 2.8%, slowing global growth, a strong USD and tariffs likely all playing their part.  

  • Durable goods orders, a closely watched proxy for business investment, was left unrevised in December at +1.2% but the detail was weak: core capital goods orders were revised to show a larger 1% fall from an initial estimate of -0.7%, while core capital goods shipments were revised to no change in the month from an initial estimate of +0.5%.

DJIA levels

However, technical the bulls have managed to hold onto bullish territory Dec swing high at 25980, although the index has morphed into a phase of consolidation at this juncture with risks of a correction down to 76.4% Fibo at 25668; A level, if triggered, that could spark off a bout of major profit-taking which would leave the  50% mean reversion level at risk. An additional bid and extension in the rally would likely look to 26200 as the Nov 7th swing highs ahead of a full recovery to 26951.

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