The US dollar is retreating everywhere in the aftermath of the ECB rate decision and the jobless claims.
There were no big surprises in neither, but the market is now free to run after the data is behind us. And, expectations for the Non-Farm Payrolls have fallen, and QE tapering with them.
The ECB made no change in policy: no negative rate. In addition, Draghi seemed to have put the negative deposit rate on the back burner, by saying it is not needed now.
Jobless claims dropped to 346K, within expectations of 345K. Jobs are key to a decision of tapering bond buys (QE). Without. The jobless claims join mediocre ADP NFP in the private sector, and weak employment component in both ISM PMIs.
In addition, jobless claims have already been in the 320s, and their stabilization on higher ground is not encouraging.
So, EUR/USD is up towards 1.32, the highest since early May, on a boost from both sides of the Atlantic. But it is not alone.
Update: the crash of the USD is intensifying
- GBP/USD has broken above 1.55, continuing previous strength and riding on the better than expected PMIs earlier in the week. The lack of action from the BOE was widely expected. Update: above 1.56
- USD/JPY is around 98.50, the lowest in a month, erasing the dramatic jump above 100 and what came before it. Update: 97.40
- Even the beaten Aussie is recovering from the lows and is now well above 0.95. Update: above 0.96
- USD/CAD: Strong Ivey PMI also helped, now closer to 1.02.
A better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls can totally change the picture, as a weak outcome is priced in. However, there’s a good reason it is priced in.
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