The US economy is going in a positive direction: a fall of 5.1% in durable goods orders and a disappointing 1.2% fall in the core figure. In addition, the previous numbers were both revised down from 0% to -0.5%. The only positive figure in this bulk is a minor beat in weekly jobless claims: 278K.
The USD is falling across the board. The moves aren’t huge, but the pressure is clear. Talk about a recession is going to grow. This naturally feeds into the GDP growth figures for Q4 published tomorrow.
- EUR/USD is pushing a bit higher, reaching a high of 1.0928. The pair’s moves are slow
- GBP/USD is at 1.4323. Earlier, UK GDP met expectations at 0.5% q/q.
- USD/JPY is sliding to 118.72, within range, awaiting the BOJ.
Also other slices and dices are weak: a 4.3% fall when excluding defense and air spending. The four week moving average on jobless claims stands at 283K, slightly better than in previous weeks, but above the levels seen a few months ago.
Durable goods orders were expected to drop 0.6% in December, after 0% in November, before revisions. Core durable goods orders, which are more important for the Fed, were predicted to slide by 0.1%. Jobless claims carried expectations to slide from the highs of 293K to 282K.
The US dollar was generally on the back foot after the cautious statement by the Fed.
Durable goods orders are often skewed by orders of aircraft, while the core number best reflects investment – a forward looking indicator.
We later have pending home sales but a bigger event awaits tomorrow: the first release of Q4 2015. See how to trade the US GDP with EUR/USD.
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