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ABN AMRO analysis team points out that Germany has only just avoided a recession over the past few quarters.

Key Quotes

“GDP growth increased by 0.1% qoq in 2019Q3 on the back of higher household and government spending. The Q2 results were revised down from -0.1% to -0.2%, while the Q1 results were revised up from 0.4% to 0.5%. Meanwhile, the Dutch economy printed 0.4% growth in all three quarters of this year.

“In 2018, the Dutch economy also outperformed that of its eastern neighbour by over 1%. While Germany grew by 1.5%, Dutch GDP surged by 2.6% in 2018. There appears to be a divergence in growth between the two economies, as the Dutch economy continues to outperform Germany.  Why? Compared to the Netherlands, Germany has been hit relatively hard since the start of 2018 by the weakness in global trade, the decline in global industrial production and the slowdown in global fixed investment growth. This is because of the difference in export destinations and the difference in export partners of the German and Dutch economies.”