Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research reviews the outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Key Quotes
“… we highlighted that ‘USD Index is in a consolidation phase’ and we held the view that it ‘could trade within September’s range of 91.75/94.74 for a period of time’. While our view was not wrong as USD Index traded within September’s range for the past one month or so, it is currently approaching the bottom of the range at 91.75. This level is not only the low in September but it is also close to the bottom of the monthly Ichimoku cloud. The bottom of the cloud offers solid support as can be seen back in 2018 when USD Index rebounded after failing to break below the cloud (see monthly chart above).”
“On top of that, the rising trend-line connecting the lows of 2011 and 2014 also sits near 91.75. In other words, 91.75 is a key long-term support and a break of such a critical level could potentially lead to a sharp and rapid drop, especially when the next long-term support level of note does not come in until the 2018 low of 88.25 (on a shorter-term note, the round-number 90.00 level could offer some support). All in, the chance for a break of 91.75 appears to be rather high unless USD Index can move and stay above 93.30 within these couple of weeks.”
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