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Economists at Deutsche Bank expect that today we’ll get a confirmation that QE net purchases will be phased out in the final quarter of this year in the forthcoming ECB meet.

Key Quotes

“As a reminder, the ECB included a caveat which gave it optionality of sorts depending on incoming data, but given that the inflation outlook hasn’t weakened since June then there’s little reason to think that there’s been a “major deviation” that could cause the ECB to change its tune.”

“Meanwhile, relative to the most recent consensus expectations, our colleagues note that the June staff forecasts look in line to marginally too optimistic so there’s a moderate risk that the staff revise forecasts slightly lower (around a tenth lower for CPI and GDP). On this it’s worth noting the Bloomberg article doing the rounds yesterday which suggested we would see lower GDP forecasts from the ECB today.”

“Also worth watching out for is President Draghi’s response to Italy. It’s hard to see him approaching any questions from reporters with anything but a straight bat but the market will no doubt be closely watching.”

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