The European Union cuts its 2014 growth forecast to 0.8%, 1.1% in 2015. This follows cuts to German forecasts.Also inflation has been cut down to 0.5% for 2014 and 0.8% in 2015. 2014 is already lost, but with 0.8% in 2015, this is far below the 2% target for the ECB .Can we see more action from the central bank?
EUR/USD seems doubtful, still holding on to 1.25.
For Germany, GDP is expected to grow by 1,3% in 2014 and 1.1% in 2015. This seems quite optimistic after recent German figures and is higher than the German forecasts.
Reminder: German PMIs did NOT forecast Q2 contraction – recession certainly possible
To be fair, they do see a stagnation in the German economy in the second half of the year.
The European Commission is optimistic for 2016: a growth rate of 1.7% for 2016 and inflation at 1.5%.
Regarding France, they see business confidence as remaining weak.
EUR/USD is actually ticking higher after this publication, basically ignoring the forecasts. Perhaps it is rising on top of a better than expected Producer Price Index release: +0.2% in September, better than 0% forecast.
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