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According to the latest Reuters poll, a majority of the economists believe that the final outcome of the Brexit negotiations is most likely to be the European Union (EU) and UK free trade agreement (FTA).

Key Findings:

Britain’s government has handled negotiations with the European Union over its departure from the bloc poorly, according to all economists in a Reuters poll

“The negotiations have been a shambles, primarily because the government opted to implement a strategy which was not on the ballot paper and gave an insufficient thought about how to implement it prior to triggering Article 50 (to launch the Brexit process),” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.  

The chance of a disorderly departure, with no deal agreed by the end of March 2019, was put at 20 percent, the same as in last month’s poll.  

  • An EU-UK free trade agreement was picked as the most likely outcome of talks
  • Second most likely was European Economic Area membership, under which Britain would pay to maintain full access to the EU Single Market
  • Followed by leaving without a deal and instead of trading under basic World Trade Organization rules.

Bank of England expected to hike by25 basis point in August

  • The second rise to 1.0 percent is predicted just after Britain is scheduled to leave the EU next March
  • “Assuming that economic activity bounces back in the second quarter and CPI inflation proves stickier over the coming months than it did in Q1, we expect the Bank of England to deliver a quarter-point increase in interest rates at the August meeting,” said Nikesh Sawjani at Lloyds Bank.