EUR/CAD consolidation at 1.5100 handle ahead of the Bank of Canada decision

• Traders will closely look at the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision. The BoC is widely expected to remain on hold, it is scheduled at 14:00 GMT.  
• Canadian Current Account, Industrial Production and the Raw Material Price Index came below expectations, helping support EUR/CAD 100-pip intraday bull run.
• German inflation and Eurozone confidence in May surprise investors as the data came in above expectation, giving the Euro a boost.

The EUR/CAD currency cross gained almost a 100 pips since the Asian session and is now consolidating its advance close to the 1.5100 handle, up 0.60% on Wednesday,  just before the Bank of Canada Interest rate decision.  The BoC is widely expected to stay on hold.  

Earlier in the American session, the Canadian data came below forecast. The Current Account for the first quarter came at -19.5 B versus -18.0 B while the Industrial Product Price for April came slightly below estimates at 0.5% versus 0.6% expected. The Raw Material Price Index came worse-than-expected at 0.7% against 2.1% forecast.  

EUR/CAD got a boost from the short covering in the Euro currency which has been rather oversold in the last weeks. Earlier in Europe, investors were surprised that the German inflation in May came above estimates as well as the May’s Eurozone Economic Confidence, Business Climate and Industrial Confidence.  

Also helping the single currency are the hopes that Italy will not have to face a new election. Additionally, the Five Star Movement and the League have repeatedly said that their intention was not to leave the Eurozone and its currency.  

On the flip side, the oil commodity-linked Canadian currency has recently been on the back foot especially against the US Dollar as crude oil prices fell about 10% last week as OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is considering increasing production to compensate for Venezuela drop in production.

EUR/CAD 4-hour chart  

EUR/CAD is consolidating near the 50-period simple moving average on the 4-hour time-frame but the currency cross is trading below its 100 and 200-period SMA suggesting that the main momentum remain bearish. Bulls are facing immediate resistance at the 1.5100 handle and at the 1.5151 swing high and then at the 1.5200-1.5224 area, handle and former swing high. To the downside, bears should expect support at 1.5053 demand level and at the 1.4986 cyclical low.