The ECB’s huge stimulus package backfired and sent EUR/USD higher, but can this last? There are also other factors in play for the common currency. Here is the view from Nomura: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Over the next three months or so, EUR trading will likely depend on three factors: i) efficacy of the ECB policy package, ii) external environment, especially Fed policy and risk sentiment, and iii) ECB willingness to ease further, including rate cuts, when necessary. Based on these three factors, EUR could take four possible paths; we think a gradual depreciation of EUR/USD thanks to better risk sentiment and Fed rate hikes is now more likely than before the ECB meeting. We judge the ECB policy package shifting to credit easing from rate cuts to be risk-positive, which should gradually depreciate EUR against USD. Short-term EUR appreciation due to negative external developments cannot be ruled out, but under this risk scenario, repetition of the EUR cycle between the December and March meetings (EUR squeezing higher once and ECB easing expectations kicking in) is more likely than the scenario of ECB inaction continuing to push EUR higher (this remains a tail risk scenario). We would expect this to be a sixmonth cycle though, rather than a three-month cycle. Thus, we think an optionalised EUR/USD downside position, with a moderate target, is the position to have. For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch. Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam Opinions share Read Next Markets await FOMC Economic Projections Scott Smith 7 years The ECB's huge stimulus package backfired and sent EUR/USD higher, but can this last? There are also other factors in play for the common currency. Here is the view from Nomura: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Over the next three months or so, EUR trading will likely depend on three factors: i) efficacy of the ECB policy package, ii) external environment, especially Fed policy and risk sentiment, and iii) ECB willingness to ease further, including rate cuts, when necessary. Based on these three factors, EUR could take four possible paths; we think a gradual depreciation of EUR/USD thanks… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.