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The EUR/GBP pair remains under direct pressure with the market seeing a fresh and concerted test of 0.8520 – the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2015/2020 bull trend. Economists at Credit Suisse continue to look for an eventual clear break lower to expose the 2019 and 2020 lows at 0.8284/39.

Key quotes

“We continue to look for an eventual sustained break below the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2015/2020 bull trend at 0.8520 for a fall to the ‘measured objective’ from the 2020 top at 0.8430. Whilst this should be allowed to hold at first, our broader bias would be for an eventual test of long-term support from the 2019 and 2020 lows at 0.8281/39. Removal of here would see a much larger and long-lasting top complete.”  

“Initial resistance is seen at 0.8555, then back at yesterday’s high and 13-day exponential average at 0.8575/80, which we look to now ideally cap. Only above 0.8641/46 though would mark a near-term base for a deeper recovery to 0.8659/69 initially.”