EUR/JPY bears lining up for a run to October trough at 126.64

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  • EUR/JPY is currently trading at 128.39, with an Asian high of 128.43 from a low of 128.26 so far. 
  • EUR/JPY is in the process of making a case for the downside following plenty of political angst n both mainland Europe and in the UK. 

The pair has been capped on the bullish attempts through R1 while the 50-D SMA at 128.50 proves to be a tough nut to crack yet again since blocking the upside in early attempts in November. 

Overnight, German data arrived with the ZEW’s December survey of investors that showed a slip in the current situation for Germany (to 45.3 from 58.2) but the more important leading components of expectations for Germany and, to a lesser extent, Eurozone managed to avert the recent further decline.

  • The Revanchists of Brussels

However, the bigger focus stayed on Brexit which drags on the euro tracking the pound which has recently sunk below the 1.25 handle on the speculation of a vote of no confidence that could see MP May out of a job as soon as Friday as her tactic to delay the meaningful vote has possibly backfired. 

  • GBP/USD: Heavy on ‘vote of no confidence’ news wires, printing fresh 2018 lows below 1.2500

EUR/JPY levels

Meanwhile, analysts at Commerzbank explained that last week EUR/JPY sold off to and held the 4-month support line at 127.70:

“The near-term risk is for recovery. Initial resistances are the 55- and 200-day moving averages at 129.23/75. To reassert upside pressure the market will need to overcome the 130.15 7 th November high. Further down lies the October trough at 126.64. While above here longer term scope remains on the topside.”

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