The SEK has gone from the strongest performing major currency versus both the USD and EUR in 2020, to something of an also-ran, after a lacklustre Q1. In the view of economists at CIBC Capital Markets, the longer-term outlook remains relatively constructive despite current covid concerns, which are set to weigh on near-term SEK sentiment.    

Global recovery hopes to support SEK ahead

“Forward-looking survey data continues to imply that activity should remain well supported, especially as we move towards H2. Of course as a small open economy, reliant upon both global trade and the performance of the German economy in particular, any signs of the eurozone recovery being materially delayed risk weighing on the SEK.”  

“The extension of the lockdown and near-term corporate dividend outflows provides near-term SEK headwinds, indeed, we have tempered relative outperformance versus the EUR over the forecast profile. However, with the global economy still set to register a strong rebound in 2021, we still retain a constructive long-term SEK bias.”

“An uptick in activity into late Q2, allied to the monetary policy stability, despite the central bank holding out additional easing if necessary, maintains a bias towards SEK gains.”