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With possible disruptions in global supply chains posing as a setback to recovery as well as the possibility of dovish surprise from the Riksbank, economists at Danske Bank pencil in EUR/SEK at 10.20 in three months and 10.30 in six months.

Riksbank neutral to the SEK, for now

“The SEK would be vulnerable to a dovish surprise from the Riksbank on 27 April given current market pricing, which is too hawkish in our opinion.”

“A temporary setback in the recovery due to global supply chain disruptions might weigh on the SEK and pose an upside risk to especially our short-term forecasts.”  

“Inflation is close to a peak and the downtrend we see for the remainder of the year is in our thinking a key headwind for the krona.”  

“Our constructive view on the USD is also set to weigh on the krona. In all, we raise 3M to 10.20 (10.10) and 6M to 10.30 (10.20), keeping 1M and 12M unchanged at 10.10 and 10.40.”