Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, notes that the EUR/USD is attempting to recover just ahead of the 1.1300 August and October lows and the market needs to overcome the current November high at 1.1500 to alleviate immediate downside pressure and allows for gains to 1.1581/1.1622 (2018 downtrend and 16th October high).
Key Quotes
“Support at 1.1300 guards 1.1216 the recent low. While the 1.1216 current November low holds the downside scope for recovery remains longer term, but waning downside risk has increased!”
“Where are we wrong? Below the 1.1216 current November low lies the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186. Failure there would put the late May and June 2017 lows at 1.1119/10 on the cards.”
“Short term trend (1-3 weeks): Two month downtrend channel eroded look for gains to 1.1500, 1.1625. Long term trend (1-3 months): A rise above the recent high at 1.1625 would confirm a trend reversal and put the 55 week moving average at 1.1852 back on the cards.”
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