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EUR/USD has seen an unsurprising rollercoaster night with early initial strength aggressively reversed, leaving the market threatening the 1.1612 September low. The risk stays seen lower for a clear break below here to expose what the Credit Suisse analyst team expects to be more important support at 1.1495/85 – the March high and 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020 rally.

Key quotes

“Despite the volatility the risk stays seen lower for a clear break below  the 1.1612 September low with support then seen next at the 50% retracement of the rally from late June at 1.1590 and eventually what should be more important support at 1.1495/85 – the March high and 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020 rally – which we look to prove a solid floor for a resumption of the core uptrend. Should weakness extend, which is not our base case, this would warn of a more damaging reversal lower with support seen next at 1.1425/23.”

“Resistance moves to 1.1695 initially, with the immediate risk now seen lower whilst below 1.1736. Above can see strength back to 1.1771/96, but with a close above here needed to suggest a more important low is in place, with resistance then seen next at 1.1839.”