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Above 1.2183, the EUR/USD pair can maintain an intraday base for strength above 1.2267 to challenge the top of the range for the year at 1.2321/1.2350, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

Support at 1.2183 ideally holds with resistance seen at 1.2264/67

“EUR/USD weakness on Friday was contained at the 23.6% retracement of the March/May rally at 1.2134 and although daily MACD and RSI momentum shows clear signs of tiring the subsequent recovery from here has seen a near-term base complete to keep the immediate risk higher for now.”  

“Support is seen at 1.2206 initially with 1.2183 ideally holding for a break above 1.2241 to clear the way for a move back to the 1.2264/67 current cycle highs. Above here can clear the way for a challenge on the top of the range for the year at 1.2321/1.2350. We would then look for a fresh cap here for a swing lower within the broader converging range.”

“Below 1.2183 can negate the base for a fall back to 1.2160/59 initially, then a retest of 1.2134/25. A break here can see a deeper setback to 1.2053/51 – the mid-May low and 38.2% retracement of the March/May rally.”