Search ForexCrunch

According to analysts from Rabobank, the EUR/USD pair has reached a critical technical pivot around the 1.11 level.

Key Quotes:  

“A prime market driver this year has been speculation about the extent of Fed rate cuts. The market consensus that this would inevitable bring a weaker USD has, however, been repeatedly disappointed. It has become increasingly clear that other central banks are also sensitive to slowing world growth, not least the ECB.”

“The EUR was whipsawed by the market’s reaction to the latest ECB press conference but the remarks from President Draghi that a “significant degree” of monetary stimulus is needed leaves open the risk of a cut in the deposit rate in September further into negative territory.”

“In recent months, the hopes for further monetary stimulus have provided support for risky assets. However, persistent signs of slowing world growth suggest there is a risk of a move back into safer assets.”

“Given the risk of wobbling appetite for EM assets in coming months, we see risk of an increase in USD demand and a dip towards EUR/USD 1.10 on a 3-month view. We would then expect a moderate recovery towards the 1.15 area in 2020 on the assumption that the pace of Fed rate cuts accelerates.”