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  • EUR/USD remains depressed ahead of German GDP, preliminary PMIs and IFO numbers.
  • Caution due to European Union elections will likely limit the EUR’s ability to cheer upbeat macro data.

EUR/USD is on the back foot near 1.1150 ahead of key macroeconomic data released in Europe, having created a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday.

The German data scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT is expected to show the Eurozone’s biggest economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2019, having registered a growth rate of 0.4% in the final three months of 2018.

The EUR may remain resilient in the face of a weaker-than-expected data, as the first quarter slowdown has been priced in by the markets.

That said, the common currency could take a beating if the relatively forward-looking preliminary German and Eurozone PMI indices show deterioration in the manufacturing activity in May. The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI for Germany, due at 07:30 GMT, is forecasted to rise slightly to 44.8 from the previous month’s print of 44.4. Meanwhile, the Eurozone PMI is seen rising to 48.1 from 47.9. Also scheduled for release at 08:00 GMT are German IFO surveys.

Above-forecast PMIs and IFO surveys could put a bid under the EUR. The gains, however, could be muted on account of European Union election uncertainty.

The voting kicks off today and many investors are worried that the anti-EU and populist parties could make strong headway. It is worth noting that anti-EU sentiment and populism is widely considered as negative for the EUR.

Technical Levels