EUR/USD: ECB easing already fully priced into euro – CIBC

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Analysts at CIBC, forecast EUR/USD at 1.16 by Q4 2019 and at 1.20 by Q2 2020.  They see that following an assumed trade truce between the US and EU, their expectation for no further rounds of QE but likely additional rate cuts prior to Draghi’s departure, they look for the Euro to strengthen against the USD.
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“While we’re in line with consensus in expecting an announcement at Draghi’s penultimate meeting on September 12th, our projected 10 bp cut in the repo rate (to -0.5%) would be smaller than some in market are now looking for, a plus for the euro. Moreover, we expect the central bank to eschew a resumption of asset purchases, in part in fear that a QE restart will be used as a “trump” card by the White House in its claims that Europe is deliberately aiming to weaken its currency. Trade relations are still on thin ice; the US has only put off a decision on auto tariffs against Europe for a later judgement.”

“Current euro levels already capture the generally dovish guidance that Draghi has extended into 2020, including his reminder that “In the absence of improvement, such that the sustained return of inflation to our aim is threatened, additional stimulus will be required.” But although it remains below the inflation target, the 5y5y inflation swap has rebounded from a double bottom, perhaps a signal that the worst of the disinflation fears are behind us.”

“Lagarde’s assumption of the ECB leadership puts a politically-savvy woman at the helm, one who is unlikely to face the same external challenges as Powell. She’s been an advocate of fiscal easing in Europe, which could start to find a less hostile ear in Germany, with the post-Merkel leadership there facing growth challenges. Any loosing of the purse strings by Europe’s largest economy would reduce the reliance on monetary policy to drive growth, paving the way for a firmer euro next year.”

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