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FX Strategists at UOB Group see EUR/USD advancing further if 1.2309 is cleared in the next weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “EUR rose to a high of 1.2309 last Thursday before dropping sharply. The rapid decline amid overbought conditions indicates that 1.2309 is likely a short-term top. That said, the sharp drop appears to be running ahead of itself and further sustained weakness in EUR is unlikely for today. EUR is more likely to consolidate, expected to be within a 1.2200/1.2285 range.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR eked out a fresh high of 1.2309 last Thursday before dropping sharply. Further EUR strength is not ruled out but upward momentum appears to be struggling and the risk of a top has increased. Unless EUR surges above 1.2309 and stays above this level within these few days, the odds for further EUR strength would diminish quickly (next resistance is at 1.2330). On the downside, a break of 1.2170 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR could consolidate and trade sideways for a period of time.”