EUR/USD: Fall Nearly But Not Quite Over; USD Long Rally Nearly But Not Quite Done – SocGen


EUR/USD hit the 2019 lows only to bounce back and surge in a knee-jerk reaction to the ECB’s decision. Where next?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Societe Generale Research discusses the EUR outlook in light’s of yesterday’s ECB policy meeting.
“For now, Mario Draghi looks like an ageing boxer, fighting to the end. His time isn’t quite up but yesterday, he failed to keep either Bund yields or the euro down, though BTPs had an excellent day. The euro’s fall is nearly, but not quite, over. The dollar’s long rally is likewise nearly, but not quite done,” SocGen notes.

“There is still scope for the euro to fall, particularly if US/Chinese trade talks reach yet another impasse, higher tariffs are introduced and the USD/CNY rises as we expect (to 7.5) or higher. But the inability of Mr Draghi to drive the euro lower with his latest ‘QEternity’ announcement is further evidence that euro weakness from here would have less to do with the ECB, than what happens elsewhere,” SocGen adds.

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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