EUR/USD posted considerable gains last week, flirting with the 1.13 level. Key events include German ZEW economic sentiment and manufacturing and services PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
There were no surprises from the ECB, which held its monthly policy meeting. The bank held the minimum bid rate at 0.00%, where it has been pegged since 2016. Investors were more interested in Mario Draghi’s comments after the rate decision. Draghi acknowledged that eurozone economic data remains weak, particularly in the manufacturing sector. The economic outlook remains weak, with Draghi saying that “slower growth momentum is expected to extend into the current year”. At the same time, Draghi said that the likelihood of a recession remains low. On the inflation front, Draghi stated that interest rates will remain at current levels at least until the end of 2019 and possibly later.
In the U.S., there was good news on the Inflation front, as inflation levels pointed higher in March. CPI, the key gauge of consumer spending, climbed to 0.4%, its highest gain since January 2018. The producer price index also looked strong, climbing 0.6%, marking a 5-month high.
EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
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- German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Investors remain pessimistic about the economic outlook for Germany, with readings in negative territory. On a positive note, the scores are moving higher. The March release improved to -3.6, and the indicator is expected to post a small gain of 0.9 in April.
- Eurozone Inflation Data: Wednesday, 9:00. Inflation remains short of the ECB target of around 2.0%. The markets are expecting slight drop In March, with headline CPI expected to edge lower to 1.4%, and the core reading projected to drop to 0.8%.
- German PPI: Thursday, 6:00. This inflation indicator has struggled, posting two declines in the past three months. PPI is expected to improve to 0.2% in March.
- PMIs: Thursday, 7:15 for France, 7:30 for Germany, and 8:00 for the euro-zone. French services PMI has posted a string of declines, and another decline is expected. The manufacturing PMI also contracted in March, but is expected to improve to 50.0. German services PMI has been pointing to expansion, and little change is expected, with an estimate of 55.0. Manufacturing has been weak, and another decline is forecast, with an estimate of 45.2. The trend in the eurozone is similar, with contraction expected for the manufacturing PMI, while services PMI is forecast to point to expansion.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.1620 has held in resistance since the start of October.
1.1570 is next.
1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.
1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier. This is followed by 1.1345.
1.1290 was breached in support late in the week, as EUR/USD dropped sharply.
1.1270 (mentioned last week) was a double-bottom in December 2018. It remained relevant during the week.
1.1215 is next. This is followed by 1.1119.
1.1025 was a cap back in May 2017.
1.0950 is the final support level for now.
I am neutral on EUR/USD
The ECB and Federal Reserve have adopted a dovish stance in 2019, so investors may have to wait for higher rates until 2020. The U.S. economy has slowed down this year, which has weighed on the dollar.
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Further reading:
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- GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
- USD/JPY forecast – analysis for dollar/yen
- AUD/USD forecast – the outlook for the Aussie dollar.
- USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions
- Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.
Safe trading!
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