EUR/USD Forecast April 6-10 – Euro Roller-Coaster Continues as Euro Slips to 1.08

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The volatility continues for EUR/USD, which declined 3 percent last week, as the pair fell to the 1.08 level. There are five events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
Eurozone inflation remains low. German CPI slowed to 0.1% in March, down from 0.4% a month earlier. The all-eurozone indicator showed that inflation dropped to 0.7% in March, down sharply from 1.2% in February. German retail sales climbed to 1.2% in February, crushing the estimate of 0.1%. This was up from 0.9% in January. German and eurozone manufacturing activity slowed in March. The German indicator fell from 48.0 to 45.4, while the all-eurozone gauge slowed from 49.2 to 44.5 points. Services PMIs plunged in March, pointing to deep contraction. The German indicator fell from 52.5 to 31.7, while the all-eurozone indicator slowed from 52.6 to 26.4 points. All four PMIs missed their forecasts.
In the U.S. employment numbers were dismal, as the COVID-19 virus has paralyzed much of the U.S. economy. Jobless claims soared to 6.6 million, more than double to 3.2 million a week earlier. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 701 thousand, much worse than the estimate of -100 thousand. The unemployment rate shot up to 4.4% up from 3.5 percent. The estimate stood at 3.8 percent. On the manufacturing front, ISM Manufacturing PMI slowed to 49.1 down from 50.1 a month earlier. A reading below the 50-level indicates contraction. Still, the reading easily beat the estimate of 44.9 points.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German Factory Orders: Monday, 6:00. Factory orders jumped 5.5% in January, after three straight declines. This reading easily beat the estimate of 1.5%. Analysts are braced for a decline of 2.7% in February.
  2. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. Investor confidence plunged in March, dropping to -17.1 points. This missed the estimate of -11.0 and was down from 5.2 points in February.
  3. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:00. The indicator accelerated to 3.0% in January, up from -3.5% a month earlier. This reading was well above the forecast of 1.7%. The estimate for February stands at -0.7%.
  4. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. Germany continues to record trade surpluses every month. In January, the surplus narrowed to EUR 18.5 billion, down from 19.2 billion a month earlier. The surplus is expected to climb to EUR 20.3 billion in February. 
  5. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Thursday, 11:30. At the March 12 meeting, the ECB opted not to follow the Federal Reserve and Bank of England and did not lower its main deposit rate, which is at -0.5%. The bank also expanded its asset purchase program by 120 billion euros. Investors will be keen to read the details of the meeting provided by the minutes.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.1119.

1.1025 (mentioned last week) is next.

1.0900 switched to resistance as EUR/USD broke below this line late in the week.

1.0829 is an immediate resistance line.

The round number of 1.07 is next.

1.0620 is protecting the 1.06 level.

1.05 is the final support level for now.

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I remain bearish on EUR/USD

In the present financial crisis, the dollar remains the currency of choice for nervous investors. The eurozone economy was sluggish before the CORVID-19 outbreak, and economic conditions have only worsened, with Italy and Spain especially hard hit by the virus.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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