EUR/USD Forecast August 5-9 – Euro under pressure, drops close to symbolic 1.10 level

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EUR/USD posted small losses last week. The key events in the upcoming week are services PMIs. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Manufacturing PMIs in the eurozone and the largest eurozone economies showed contraction in June, as the manufacturing sector continues to stumble. On the inflation front, Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate dipped to 1.1% in July, its smallest gain since December 2016. There was positive news from eurozone retail sales, which posted a sharp gain of 1.1%.
Late in the week, U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese products, shaking the financial markets. With trade negotiations between the U.S. and China at a standstill, the U.S. announced new tariffs of 10% on an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. The move is scheduled to take effect on September 1, and China has vowed to retaliate.

The Federal Reserve was in the spotlight last week, lowering rates for the first time in 10 years. The key question facing investors is whether the move is a “one and done” or is there more easing to come? Clearly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell clearly didn’t want to tip his hat too much in his press conference, but his comment that the cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment to policy” seemed to hint against further easing in the near future. This perception sent the U.S. dollar higher, while stocks headed south. Elsewhere, U.S. employment numbers were a mix. Wage growth rose 0.3%, above the forecast of 0.2%. However, nonfarm payrolls slipped to 164 thousand, down sharply from 224 thousand a month earlier.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Services PMIs: Thursday, 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German one at 7:55, and final euro-zone number at 8:00. The German and Spanish readings are expected to continue to show expansion in June, with readings of 55.4 and 53.6, respectively. The French PMI is projected to slip to 52.2, down from 52.9. In Italy, the June release of 50.5 indicated stagnation and little change is expected in June, with an estimate of 50.6.
  2. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. Investor confidence has been dropping, and in July, the indicator came in at -5.8. This was much lower than the estimate of -0.3. The negating trend is expected to continue in August, with an estimate of -6.9.
  3. German Factory Orders: Tuesday, 6:00. The manufacturing sector is showing signs of weakness in the eurozone’s largest economy. The indicator sagged in May, posting a decline of 2.2%. June is expected to bring better news, with a forecast of 0.5%.
  4. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:00. Industrial production rebounded in May with a gain of 0.3%, after a sharp decline of 1.9% a month earlier. However, the markets are braced for a decline in June, with an estimate of -0.6%.
  5. German Trade Balance: Friday, 6:00. Germany consistently produces monthly trade surpluses. In May, the surplus improved to EUR 18.7 billion, above the estimate of EUR 16.8 billion. The estimate for June stands at 18.5 billion.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier.

1.1345 is next. 1.1290 has held in resistance since the first week of July.

Close by, 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018.

1.1215 is the next resistance line.

1.1119 (mentioned last week) remained relevant this week.

1.1025 was a cap back in May 2017.

1.0950 is next.

1.0829 has held in support since April 2017.

1.0690 is the final support level for now.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

The eurozone continues to grapple with weak growth and inflation and the manufacturing sector continues to struggle. The euro could face further headwinds, and the symbolic 1.10 level could be under pressure this week.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.