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EUR/USD posted slight gains last week. Investors will be keeping a close eye on German and eurozone data in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
PMIs, which are important gauges of the services and manufacturing sectors, were slightly higher than forecast. The services PMIs showed expansion in Germany, France and the eurozone. However, German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs pointed to contraction, with readings of 43.6 and 47.0, respectively. The French indicator moved into expansion territory, with a reading of 51.0. The ECB minutes were dovish, with policymakers stating that downside risks for growth had become “more pervasive”.
The Fed minutes provided details of the July meeting, in which the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut in 10 years. FOMC members said that the cut was intended to stimulate inflation and business investment. The Fed was deeply divided over the July cut, with two members in favor of no change, while another two sought a 1/2 percentage cut. With economic conditions looking cloudy, investors are braced for up to three more rate cuts this year, possibly as early as September.
Is the U.S. heading into a recession? There are disturbing signs that this could indeed be the case. Some analysts are predicting that third-quarter growth could drop to just 1.5%, and the August Manufacturing PMI set off some alarm bells, falling into contraction territory for the first time since September 2009. Although the reading of 49.9 was just a shade lower than the previous reading of 50.0, a reading in contraction territory makes the headlines and causes jitters among investors. As well, this marks the seventh successive month the index has lost ground. There wasn’t much relief in the services sector, as the services PMI slowed to 50.9, down from 52.2 a month earlier.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 4:00. Business confidence slipped in July to 95.7, down from 97.4 a month earlier. The downward trend is expected to continue in August, with an estimate of 95.1.
  2. German Final GDP: Tuesday, 2:00. Germany is a bellwether for the rest of the eurozone, so analysts are always interested in German GDP. Preliminary GDP for the second quarter declined by 0.1% and this is expected to be confirmed in the second estimate.
  3. Monetary data: Wednesday, 9:00. M3 Money Supply slowed down to an annual growth rate of 4.5% in June, down from 4.8% a month earlier. The July estimate stands at 4.7%. Private Loans were unchanged in June, at 3.3% y/y. Private loans are expected rise to 3.5% in July.
  4. Germany Preliminary CPI: Thursday, All Day. This indicator is a key inflation gauge. In July, the index improved to 0.5%, above the forecast of 0.3%. Investors are braced for a decline of 0.1% in the August release.
  5. Eurozone Inflation: Thursday, 11:30. Inflation remains well below the ECB’s target of 2.0%. CPI Flash Estimate slowed to 1.1% in July and is projected to drop to 1.0% in August. The core reading slowed to 0.9% in July and the forecast for August stands at 1.0%.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier.

1.1345 is next. 1.1290 has held in resistance since the first week of July.

Close by, 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018.

1.1215 is the next resistance line.

1.1119 (mentioned  last week) has switched to a support role.

1.1025 was a cap back in May 2017.

1.0950 is next.

1.0829 has held in support since April 2017.

1.0690 is the final support level for now.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

Weak global conditions and the U.S-China trade war have taken a heavy toll on the eurozone and German manufacturing sectors. The escalation in tensions between the super-economies and the Brexit deadlock will continue to weigh on the euro.

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