EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 4:00. Business confidence slipped in July to 95.7, down from 97.4 a month earlier. The downward trend is expected to continue in August, with an estimate of 95.1.
- German Final GDP: Tuesday, 2:00. Germany is a bellwether for the rest of the eurozone, so analysts are always interested in German GDP. Preliminary GDP for the second quarter declined by 0.1% and this is expected to be confirmed in the second estimate.
- Monetary data: Wednesday, 9:00. M3 Money Supply slowed down to an annual growth rate of 4.5% in June, down from 4.8% a month earlier. The July estimate stands at 4.7%. Private Loans were unchanged in June, at 3.3% y/y. Private loans are expected rise to 3.5% in July.
- Germany Preliminary CPI: Thursday, All Day. This indicator is a key inflation gauge. In July, the index improved to 0.5%, above the forecast of 0.3%. Investors are braced for a decline of 0.1% in the August release.
- Eurozone Inflation: Thursday, 11:30. Inflation remains well below the ECB’s target of 2.0%. CPI Flash Estimate slowed to 1.1% in July and is projected to drop to 1.0% in August. The core reading slowed to 0.9% in July and the forecast for August stands at 1.0%.
EUR/USD Technical analysis
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.
1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier.
1.1345 is next. 1.1290 has held in resistance since the first week of July.
Close by, 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018.
1.1215 is the next resistance line.
1.1119 (mentioned last week) has switched to a support role.
1.1025 was a cap back in May 2017.
1.0950 is next.
1.0829 has held in support since April 2017.
1.0690 is the final support level for now.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD
Weak global conditions and the U.S-China trade war have taken a heavy toll on the eurozone and German manufacturing sectors. The escalation in tensions between the super-economies and the Brexit deadlock will continue to weigh on the euro.