EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- German Final CPI: Tuesday, 6:00. Inflation has been weak in the eurozone’s locomotive. CPI declined by 0.1% in May, down from 0.4% beforehand. A strong rebound is forecast for June, with an estimate of 0.6%.
- ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Investor optimism jumped to 63.4 in June, up from 51.0 a month earlier. The indicator has made an impressive recovery since falling to -49.5 back in March. Another strong showing is expected in July, with a forecast of 60.1.
- French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45. France continues to post soft inflation numbers. The initial read of -0.1% in June is expected to be confirmed in the final release.
- ECB Rate Decision: Thursday, 11:45. The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at a flat 0.00%. Investors will be keenly interested in the rate statement, given the severe economic conditions gripping the eurozone.
- Eurozone Inflation: Friday, 9:00. In May, the headline reading came in at 0.1%, down from 0.3% a month earlier. The estimate for June stands at 0.3%. The core read is expected to come in at 0.8%, after two straight readings of 0.9%.
EUR/USD Technical analysis
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 1.1573. 1.1515 is next.
1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.
1.1280 remains relevant. Currently, it is an immediate support line.
1.1215 is the first line of support.
1.1119 is next.
1.1025 (mentioned last week) has provided support since late May.
1.0920 is the final support level for now.
I remain neutral on EUR/USD
The euro has shown limited movement since mid-June, unable to establish a strong breakout. The eurozone continues to exhibit weak economic conditions, but with the US economy also struggling, the lack of a trend could well continue.