EUR/USD Forecast March 18-22 – Euro jumps but trade war worries continue

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EUR/USD climbed close to 1.0% last week, recovering most of the losses sustained a week earlier. The key events this week are German ZEW Economic Sentiment and German and eurozone PMIs. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve rate statement. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

German manufacturing data continues to sag, as the global trade war has dampened demand for German products. Industrial production declined 0.8% in January, continuing a worrying trend. The indicator has managed only one gain since June. In the eurozone, CPI was almost unchanged at 1.5%, as inflation remains below the ECB target of around 2 percent.

In the U.S., consumer numbers were a mix last week, which weighed on the greenback. Core retail sales jumped 0.9%, marking an 8-month gain. However, inflation levels remain sluggish, with CPI coming in at 0.2% and Core CPI at 0.1%. As well, jobless claimed climbed higher than expected.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/azUiokBi/

  1. Trade Balance: Monday, 10:00. The eurozone trade surplus has been rising and the positive trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of EUR 17.2 billion for the January estimate. A higher trade surplus is bullish for the euro.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00.   Investors and analysts remain pessimistic about the economic outlook for Germany, although the readings have improved slightly. The February score came in at 13.4 and the forecast for March stands at -11.0 points. It’s been a similar trend for the all-European figure indicator, which came in at -16.6 in February, and is projected to improve to -15.1 points in March.
  3. German PPI: Wednesday, 7:00. The inflation indicator rebounded in January, with a gain of 0.4%. This followed a decline of 0.4% in the previous month. The estimate for February stands at 0.2%.
  4. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. Two weeks after the European Central  Bank announces its rate decision, it publishes the economic data it had when making that decision. The statistics and analysis provide insights into the economy, inflation, and future monetary moves.
  5. Flash PMIs: Friday, 8:15 for France, 8:30 for Germany, and 9:00 for the euro-zone. In France, services PMI has contracted for three straight months. The indicator is expected to rise to 50.6 in February, pointing to stagnation. Manufacturing is also weak, with recent releases just above the 50-level, which separates contraction from expansion. In Germany, manufacturing PMIs have also pointed to contraction and the trend is expected to continue in the upcoming release. Services PMI has been stronger, and the estimate for the February stands at 54.8 points. The eurozone manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.2, and the forecast for February is 49.6 points. Services PMI improved to 52.3 in January, and the estimate for February is 52.7 points.
  6. Current Account: Friday, 9:00. The eurozone surplus fell to EUR 16.2 billion in January, short of the estimate of 21.4 billion. The indicator is expected to rise to EUR 17.3 billion.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.1750. Close by, 1.1720 is a veteran line that worked in both directions and it capped the pair in mid-September.

1.1620 has held in resistance since the start of October.

1.1570 is next.

1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier. 1.1345 (mentioned last week), held in resistance, despite being under pressure late in the week.

1.1290 was a low point around the same period of time. 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018.

1.1215  which was the low-point in 2018. This is followed by 1.1119.

1.1025 was a cap back in May 2017.

1.0950 is the final support level for now.

I am bearish on EUR/USD

The global trade war has dampened the eurozone economy, in particular, the manufacturing and export sectors. The chaos surrounding Brexit has not helped matters, as the eurozone economy is expected to weaken when Britain leaves, especially if there is no deal in place between London and Brussels. With both the Federal Reserve and the ECB in dovish mode, economic data will play an important role in the direction of the pair, with the advantage going to the dollar, thanks to a strong U.S. economy.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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