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EUR/USD  had another negative week, falling to the lowest levels in 5 months. Will it continue falling? PMI figures and the ECB meeting minutes stand out. Here is an outlook for  the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

German GDP disappointed with a growth rate of only 0.3% q/q in the first quarter while inflation was confirmed at low levels. Italy moved to the forefront with the formation of a government that plans to cut taxes and spend money, enlarging the debt. More radical plans such as writing down €250 billion of debt were dropped, but markets became jittery and the euro suffered. In the US, 10-year bond yields reached new highs at 3.13%, helping the US Dollar. American data was alright but not outstanding.

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EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. ECB Financial Stability Review:   Monday, 8:00. This report about the stability of the financial comes after improvements in the situation of Italian banks but as the country is about to embark on a new political and economic path. It will be interesting to see if the report expresses concern about the recent slowdown or focuses on the stability of the financial institutions.
  2. Flash PMI: Wednesday morning: Data for France at 7:00, for Germany at 7:30, and for the whole euro-zone at 8:00. Markit’s final French purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector in April stood at 53.8 points, reflecting modest growth. The preliminary read for May is projected to show a similar figure of 53.6 points. The score for France’s services sector is expected to tick down from 57.4 to 57.3 points. Germany, the largest economy in the continent, is projected to see the Manufacturing PMI dropped from 58.1 to 57.9 points. The Services PMI carries expectations for a small rise from 53 to 53.2 points. The euro-zone Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 56.2 and the Services PMI to stick to 54.7 also in May.
  3. Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. EuroStat’s survey of around 2,300 consumers stood at 0 points in April, a balance between optimism and pessimism. A rise to 1 point is on the cards now.
  4. German GDP: Thursday, 6:00. The final read of Germany’s Q1 2018 GDP is expected to confirm the initial read of 0.3% q/q, half the growth rate in the last quarter of 2017. Revisions are quite uncommon.
  5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00. This survey of around 2,000 consumers has been stable in recent months, ticking down in April to 10.9 from 10.8 in March, in line with previous reads. A similar score is likely now.
  6. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Thursday, 11:30. The European Central Bank did not change its policies in April and refrained from making any announcement. ECB President Mario Draghi described the economic slowdown as a “moderation” and named temporary factors. The meeting minutes from that event will provide a look into the deliberations within the Governing Council. How worried are the members about lower growth rates and falling inflation? The QE program is seen as ending at the end of the year with an interest rate hike sometime in 2019. The minutes will help shape expectations and will move the euro.
  7. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 13:00. This wide survey from the heart of the European Union showed a positive score of 1 point in April. No significant changes are likely now.
  8. German Ifo Business Climate:   Friday, 8:00. Ifo is considered Germany’s No. 1 Think-tank. In April, it showed a slide in business confidence, to a score of 102.1 points. a minor drop to 102 is expected. The Current Assessment component is projected to drop from 105.7 to 105.5 points and Expectations are forecast to tick down from 98.7 to 98.5 points. Note that the institution recently changed its formula.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar initially stalled at the 1.1820 level (mentioned last week). IT then dropped and hit a new low at 1.1750.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The 1.2210 level which served as a cushion in April is the next level to watch.

1.2155 was a low point in early March and the last line before 1.2090, the 2017 peak.  1.2060 was the low point in late April and it is the last barrier before the round number of 1.20.

The round number of 1.19 is also notable as a pivotal line in the range and it also temporarily held the pair back in late 2017.

Further down, the 1.1820 level was a stubborn support line in late 2017. 1.1750 is a low point recorded in mid-May. Further down.

1.1720 is a veteran line that worked in both directions, last seen in November. 1.1695 also served as a cushion around the same time. 1.1610 is already an older line.

I am bearish on EUR/USD

The new Italian government will likely continue serving as a source of concern while the ECB tends to be dovish. In the US, just reiterating the path of rate hikes by the Fed in the FOMC minutes should be enough as an excuse to gain further ground.

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