EUR/USD looks weaker and clinches 2021 lows near 1.1920
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EUR/USD looks weaker and clinches 2021 lows near 1.1920

  • EUR/USD loses further ground and drop to the 1.1920 area.
  • German Factory Orders expanded 1.4% MoM in January.
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls will be the salient event later on Friday.

There is no respite in the selling pressure around the European currency, with EUR/USD recording fresh yearly lows in the 1.1930/20 band on Friday.

EUR/USD now looks to US data

EUR/USD trades on the defensive for the third consecutive session against a favourable backdrop for the greenback and persistent risk-off sentiment.

In fact, rising US yields continue to lend support to the move higher in the dollar, always propped up by the prospects of higher inflation in the US in response to the planned increase in the fiscal stimulus.

Earlier in the euro docket, German Factory Orders expanded at a monthly 1.4% during January, surpassing initial estimates. Later in the NA session, the Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of February will be in the limelight (182K exp.).

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD falls to new 2021 lows and approaches the 1.1900 area. The previous constructive stance in the euro now looks dented as market participants continue to adjust to higher US yields (and inflation). In the short-term, price action around the pair will exclusively hinge on dollar dynamics amidst the performance of real yields on both sides of the ocean, extra fiscal stimulus in the US and global economic recovery.

Eminent issues on the back boiler: EUR appreciation could trigger ECB verbal intervention, always amidst the current (and future) context of subdued inflation. Potential political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. Huge long positions in the speculative community.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the index is retreating 0.36% at 1.1921 and faces the next support at 1.1887 (61.8% Fibo of the November-January rally) followed by 1.1808 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.1762 (78.6% Fibo of the November-January rally). On the flip side, a break above 1.2027 (100-day SMA) would target 1.2129 (50-say SMA) en route to 1.2243 (monthly high Feb.25).

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