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  • EUR/USD bears getting set for a high probability breakout to the downside. 
  • Daily support is the only thing standing in the way, from a technical standpoint. 

The downside case fo the single currency, from a technical basis, is fitting well with the near to medium-term higher USD narrative:

In the analysis from the end of last week, DXY Price Analysis: EM-FX/DXY could be a tell-tale sign of things to come, the case was made for a higher dollar.

The chart above shows that the index is being supported in what could be the start of the 5th wave in a bullish 5-wave pattern:

EUR/USD bearish analysis

For EUR/USD, the following illustrates the downside case in a top-down analysis, starting with the monthly chart:

Monthly target

Bears can expect a retracement at least to the 38.2% Fibonacci level following such a long and interrupted surge to the upside. 

Weekly chart

We have seen a retracement within the distribution, right to the 61.8% of the latest bearish impulse. 

This is significant as it meets resistance and the combination offers a good argument for the downside narrative from here. 

Weekly target

The weekly target has a number of confluence, including a market high and both the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonaccis of weekly and month ranges. 

Daily chart

Until the price breaks the support structures of both the sending trendline and the horizontal, the market is in the hands of the bears.