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Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, notes the EUR/USD pair has held the retracement after hitting the 200-week ma at 1.1334 and now points to the 1.1495 March peak. Contrary, UOB said that the probable test of 1.1390 is losing momentum.

Key quotes of Commerzbank

“EUR/USD last week reached the 200-week ma at 1.1334 and has seen a small retracement to the 1.1240 December 2019 high, which is currently holding. It is possible that this is all we will see ahead of another leg up to the 1.1495 March peak.”

“Above the 1.1495 March peak will target 1.1570, the 2019 high then 1.1815/22, the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2018 peak. Longer-term, our target is the 1.1862 2008-2020 resistance line.” 

“Below 1.1240 would allow for a deeper retracement to 1.1150, the 38.2% retracement and even 1.1040, the 6-week support line, but look for the market to hold down here.”


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