- The pair’s recovery falters around the 1.1360 region.
- The greenback remains on the defensive near 96.40.
- ZEW survey due tomorrow ahead of EU Summit on Thursday.
The leg lower in the greenback is allowing EUR/USD to extend the recovery from post-ECB lows near 1.1180 to today’s tops around 1.1360.
EUR/USD looks to data, risk trends, FOMC
Spot is advancing for the second consecutive week so far on Monday, bolstered by the solid rebound in the sentiment surrounding the riskier assets and re-shifting its focus to the 1.1400 handle and above, levels last seen in late February.
In the meantime, there is no fresh news on the US-China trade front following last week’s postponement of the trump-Xi meeting for the month of April, while latest headlines around Brexit tied the likeliness of another meaningful vote this week to an agreement between the government and the DUP.
In the data space, the German/EMU ZEW survey is due tomorrow ahead of the FOMC meeting expected on Wednesday and the EU Leaders Summit on Thursday.
What to look for around EUR
Market participants appear to have already adjusted to the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends as the main driver of the price action in the near term. In the longer run, the performance of the economy in the region should remain in centre stage along with prospects of re-assessment of the ECB’s monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that investors keep pricing in the first rate hike by the central bank at some point in H2 2019. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.25% at 1.1352 facing the next hurdle at 1.1365 (55-day SMA) seconded by 1.1419 (high Feb.14) and finally 1.1484 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1286 (10-day SMA) would target 1.1176 (2019 low Mar.7) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).
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