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A break below 1.1530 should pave the wave for a visit to the mid-1.1400s, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “EUR edged below last week’s 1.1566 low and touched 1.1561 before ending the day on a soft note (NY close of 1.1576). While it is too soon to expect a sustained recovery, the combination of oversold conditions and waning momentum suggest limited risk for a sustained decline. From here, EUR is likely to grind lower but the prospect for a break of the major 1.1530 support is not high (minor support is at 1.1555). Resistance is at 1.1605 followed by 1.1630″.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We indicated last Friday (28 Sep, spot at 1.1640) EUR is expected to “stay under pressure in the coming days” and added, the “major 1.1530 support could be out of reach”. EUR dropped to a low of 1.1566 during NY hours last Friday before edging lower to touch 1.1561 yesterday (01 Oct). The lackluster downward momentum reinforces our view wherein we continue to see downside risk for EUR but any weakness may be limited to a ‘test’ of 1.1530. On the upside, only a break of the 1.1660 ‘key resistance’ (level previously at 1.1730) would suggest that a short-term low is in place. Looking further ahead, a clear break below 1.1530 would suggest EUR is ready to challenge the next support at 1.1450″.