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  • EUR/USD advances to fresh 2-week high at 1.17 on Thursday.
  • Draghi repeats that the policy would remain accommodative after APP stops.
  • Inflation growth softens in the United States.

The EUR/USD pair jumped to its highest level in two weeks at 1.17 during the early trading hours of the NA session but failed to extend higher as the impact of the ECB president Draghi’s comments’, and the U.S. inflation numbers’ on the market started to fade away. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.1675, adding 0.45% on the day.

As expected, the European Central Bank decided to keep its  interest rates on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40%, respectively. During the press conference, President Mario Draghi reiterated that the underlying economic strength continued to support the confidence and he believed that the inflation rate would converge with their target level. Regarding the policy outlook, Draghi explained that the policy would remain accommodative  even after the APP stops and stated that the committee hasn’t yet discussed the possible timing of the next rate hike.

Although Draghi didn’t adopt a hawkish tone, the pair gathered strength during the press conference as the greenback weakened against its major rivals following the dismal inflation numbers.  

The monthly report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 0.2% in August to match July’s reading and fell short of the analysts’ estimate of 0.3%. Furthermore, the core-CPI, which strips food and energy prices, eased to 2.2% from 2.4% on an annual basis.

Despite the disappointing CPI numbers, odds of two more rate Fed rate hikes in the remainder of the year stays very strong.  “In many ways, the current inflation environment is just what the Fed wants to see. Core inflation has slowly moved back up to levels consistent with the FOMC’s target. Yet there are few signs of inflation blowing far past the Fed’s comfort zone and forcing the Fed to raise rates faster than expected; inflation expectations””especially longer-term views””have been little changed. We see core CPI running around 2.3% through the rest of this year before picking up in 2019,” Wells Fargo analysts said in a recently published report.

Technical levels to consider

The immediate resistance for the pair aligns at 1.1700 (daily high/psychological level) ahead of 1.1735 (Aug. 28 high) and 1.1790 (Jul. 9 high). On the downside, supports could be seen at 1.1635 (100-DMA), 1.1570 (Sep. 12 low) and 1.1525 (Sep. 10 low).


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