FX Strategists at UOB Group still expect EUR/USD to navigate between 1.1200 and 1.1380 in the next weeks.
24-hour view: “Yesterday, we highlighted that EUR ‘could edge higher towards 1.1345 but a sustained rise above this level is unlikely’. We added, ‘the next resistance is at 1.1380’. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1374 before pulling back quickly. While a sustained advance still appears unlikely, there is room for EUR to test the major resistance at 1.1380 first before the current upward pressure should ease (next resistance is at 1.1405). In other words, a clear break of 1.1380 is unlikely. Support is at 1.1320 followed by 1.1300.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “While there is no change in our view wherein EUR ‘could consolidate between 1.1200 and 1.1380’, EUR closed on a relatively firm note at 1.1340 yesterday (up by +0.37%). Upward momentum has improved and the odds for EUR to move clearly above 1.1380 have increased. To look at it another way, if EUR closes above 1.1380 within these few days, a break of the June’s peak of 1.1422 would not be surprising. At this stage, the prospect for such a scenario is not high but it would increase quickly as long as 1.1270 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached within these 1 to 2 days.”