EUR/USD struggles for direction, still targets 1.2000
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EUR/USD struggles for direction, still targets 1.2000

  • EUR/USD looks to extend the rally to the 1.20 area.
  • The dollar remains side-lined in the lower end of the range.
  • US Retail Sales, Initial Claims take centre stage in the NA session.

The upside momentum in the single currency shows some signs of exhaustion and prompts EUR/USD to recede from tops around 1.1990 on Thursday.

EUR/USD focused on US docket

EUR/USD alternates gains with losses after three consecutive daily advances and trades just pips away from the psychological 1.2000 hurdle, always amidst the steady performance of the greenback.

In fact, further consolidation in the dollar appears likely in light of the generalized absence of relevant drivers and innocuous effect of recent positive results from key fundamentals.

Investors, in the meantime, seem to have shifted the focus to Europe and the prospects of a strong rebound later in the year amidst the improved pace of the vaccine rollout.

Data wise in Euroland, final March inflation figures in Germany noted the CPI rose 0.5% MoM and 1.7% YoY. In France, consumer prices rose 0.6% inter-month and 1.1% from a year earlier.

Across the pond, the main event will be the release of the Retail Sales for the month of March along weekly Initial Claims. Further data include the Philly Fed Index, the NY Empire State Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, NAHB Index and TIC Flows.

In addition, Atlanta Fed R.Bostic (voter, centrist), San Francisco Fed M.Daly (voter, centrist) and Cleveland Fed L.Mester (2022 voter, hawkish) are all due to speak later on Thursday.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD keeps pushing higher and gradually approaches the psychological 1.2000 barrier in response to the increasing selling pressure in the dollar and fresh optimism on the economic rebound in the euro area now that the vaccine campaign appears to have gained some serious pace. Solid results from key fundamentals as of late also appear to bolster this shift in the investors’ view.

Key events in the euro area this week: Eurogroup meeting, EMU final CPI (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the index is gaining 0.05% at 1.1983 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1990 (monthly high Apr.15) 1.2000 (psychological level) and finally 1.2050 (100-day SMA). On the other hand, a breach of 1.1899 (200-day SMA) would target 1.1762 (78.6% Fibo of the November-January rally) en route to 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31).

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