EUR/USD technical analysis: Probing confluence of resistance at 1.1265

• EUR/USD is chipping away at key resistance at 1.1265.  
• The 4-hour chart shows a falling wedge breakout.  

The American Dollar remains on the defensive in Asia as expectations of a July rate cut have  firmed, courtesy of dovish testimony by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The market is now pricing  around 30 basis points  of easing on 31 July.  

The US Dollar weakness has pushed EUR/USD higher to 1.1265. That level marks the confluence of the 4-hour chart 200- and 50-candle moving averages and also the trendline connecting May 30 and June 18 low.  

A convincing break higher would add credence to the falling wedge breakout, a bullish reversal pattern, on the 4-hour chart and open the doors to levels above 1.13.  

The bulls, however, may have a tough time forcing a convincing break above 1.1265, as the  4-hour chart 50- and 200-dandle MAs are about to produce a bearish crossover.  

As of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1264.  

4-hour chart

Trend: Bullish above 1.1265

Pivot points