EUR/USD has broken sharply below its 200-day average at 1.1996. A close below here would confirm a more important in-range top to suggest further weakness over the next few weeks, potentially as far as 1.1753, the Credit Suisse analyst team report.
Resistance moves to 1.2007
“A close below the 200-day average at 1.1996, which we think is likely, would suggest we have seen a more important in-range top complete, turning the trend lower over the next few weeks.
“We see support next at the mid-April ‘outside day’ low at 1.1942, then the 61.8% retracement of the rally from late March. Whilst we would look for this latter support to hold at first, below in due course can see weakness extend to 1.1867/60 next, then the 78.6% retracement at 1.1823. Whilst we would also look for this to hold at first, below can see weakness extend to potential trend support from the lower end of the converging range, now at 1.1756.”
“Resistance is seen at 1.1983 initially, then the 200-day average at 1.1996. Above 1.2007 is needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a move back towards 1.2092, but with fresh sellers now expected ahead of here.”