EUR/CHF is trading in the lowest level ever. Technicians will see it going further down, but the SNB might force it to go in the other direction. Will we see EUR/CHF rock on Friday? Updates on this cross.
EUR/CHF is now trading at 1.4244, the lowest level this pair ever traded in. It broke below the previous record of 1.4297 reached in October 2008, at the height of the global crisis, when the Swiss Franc was initially sought as the “safe haven” currency.
Throughout most of of 2009, the pair traded above 1.50. This psychological round number was not solely eyed by traders – also the Swiss National Bank guarded this line. The Euro zone is Switzerland’s main trading partner, and a weak Euro is bad for the Swiss economy, which is doing well. But support was lost:
Since mid-December, EUR/CHF began dropping. Despite some interventions by the central bank, the pair continue to deteriorate. In recent weeks, officials from the SNB made firm statements promising to act against the “excessively low levels of EUR/CHF”. The most recent “verbal intervention” came from SNB Governing Board Chairman Philipp Hildebrand this week.
This recent statement came after a week of deterioration from 1.46, which was the bottom in March 2009. EUR/CHF held on to 1.46 for some time, also backed by interventions, but after breaking this level, it deteriorated quickly – mostly due to the uncertainty about the Greek crisis.
Will the SNB move from talking to acting? They’ve also seen that these interventions are often short lived -the markets have a will of their own. A very massive intervention is needed, not just a spike.
If the cross continues to drop, the next technical level is 1.40, a round number. Looking up, 1.46 now serves as a resistance line. An intervention in the Swiss Franc will not be limited to EUR/CHF, but will also move USD/CHF. Currently at 1.0620, the next resistance line is 1.0650, quite close. It’s followed by 1.0730, 1.0830 and 1.09, which is a strong resistance line.
As we’ve seen earlier this year, interventions from the SNB usually came on Friday – sometimes during the quiet Asian session. Will we see this happening this week as well?
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